Republican Byron Donalds and Sen. Ashley Moody each lead their Democratic rivals by 11 points in Florida’s governor and Senate races, a new Stetson University poll finds, keeping the state’s top contests firmly in GOP hands.
The Stetson survey of modeled likely voters put Donalds, the Naples congressman, ahead of Democrat David Jolly 52 percent to 41 percent for governor. Moody held the identical 52-41 edge over state Rep. Angie Nixon in the Senate race.
Republicans also led the generic congressional ballot 50 percent to 41 percent. The numbers land as Florida voters head toward a November contest that will lock in the state’s next governor and decide who finishes the Senate term through 2028.
Moody’s net approval sat at plus-21, with 55 percent approving and 34 percent disapproving. Gov. Ron DeSantis registered plus-14 (55-41). President Donald Trump stood narrowly above water at plus-1 (50-49).
Donalds entered the general election with a Trump-backed primary win already behind him and a first-quarter fundraising haul that topped $22 million. He has campaigned on continuing DeSantis’s record and would become Florida’s first black governor if he prevails.
Jolly, a former Republican congressman, left the party and registered as a Democrat in 2025 before launching his bid. He named former Rep. Gwen Graham as his running mate and has centered his campaign on the state’s affordability crisis.
The Stetson figures track other recent surveys. A James Madison Institute poll released Oct. 9 showed Donalds up 10 points. An NBC6/Telemundo/Mason-Dixon poll found Donalds leading 48-41 and Moody ahead 50-40.
Moody was appointed to the Senate in January 2025 to fill the seat vacated when Marco Rubio became secretary of state. The November election will choose who serves the rest of that term through 2028. Her plus-21 net approval gives her a clear cushion over Nixon.
Nixon, a Jacksonville state representative, won her primary by upsetting retired Army Lt. Col. Alex Vindman. She carries an endorsement from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) but has badly trailed in fundraising.
Florida’s Republican strength this cycle sits alongside other national election fights, including the Missouri congressional map dispute still hanging over November races.
Florida Politics analyst Steve Vancore argued the Stetson survey rested on shaky ground because it relied on an opt-in online panel rather than the state voter file.
Vancore wrote that the sample was skewed:
"The panel had too many Trump voters, by about 5 points, and demographic weighting couldn’t fix it,"
He noted that adding party registration to the weighting trimmed Donalds’ lead to about 10 points, still a double-digit advantage.
Even after that adjustment, the race picture barely budged. Separate polling from the James Madison Institute and Mason-Dixon had already shown Donalds and Moody ahead by similar margins, giving the Stetson results a consistent backdrop rather than an outlier.
Election rules and turnout mechanics remain live issues nationwide, from the Supreme Court ruling on voter citizenship checks to state-level contests that keep testing party loyalty.
Jolly’s party switch and Nixon’s progressive backing have so far failed to close the gap with well-funded, Trump-aligned Republicans who dominate Florida’s recent electoral map. Donalds’ cash edge and Moody’s approval numbers leave Democrats hunting for a late shift that the available polls do not yet show.
Another Trump-endorsed Republican win this cycle came when Darline Graham took a South Carolina Senate runoff, a reminder that presidential backing still moves primary and general-election voters in the South.
Florida voters will decide in November whether the double-digit leads hold. For now, the Stetson numbers, the matching outside polls, and the fundraising imbalance all point the same direction.
In a state that keeps electing Republicans who deliver results, Democrats are still searching for a message that actually moves the needle.