On June 21, Donald Trump ordered a precision strike in Iran to take out its nuclear facilities.
Within hours, there was a low-confidence report leaked, all but negating the impact of strike.
Now, nearly two weeks later, we are finally seeing legitimate intelligence, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's department stating that it appears Iran’s program has been set back “nearly two years.”
I was actually on the golf course with friends when the alerts started to blow up my phone.
It was only days before that Trump had stated he was going to consider the strike for about two weeks, then make a final decision.
This was all a dog-and-pony show, however, as the decision had already been made, and bomber pilots were already in the air for what would be a 37-hour run to Iran to take out three major nuclear sites, including Fordow.
The early pictures were devastating, but the nature of the facilities meant that it would be some time before we really knew the full effect the bombing run had on Iran’s capabilities.
Less than 48 hours after the strike, a report surfaced on several outlets claiming only minimal damage had been done.
We later found out the report was classified as “low-confidence,” and it was leaked by a staffer who apparently had an axe to grind with Trump.
The report claimed that at two of the facilities, only the entrances were impeded, and Iran could possibly dig through the rubble to regain access. If the report was accurate, the facilities were still operational.
The Trump administration immediately pushed back on the report, saying it was far too early to assess the damage, and it would be weeks before they truly knew the impact of the strikes.
Now, nearly two weeks after the strikes, Hegseth's department has stated that they have a much better idea of what happened during those strikes.
Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell stated, “Our assessment of the battle damage around Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan remains unchanged. We believe, and certainly all of the intelligence that we’ve seen has led us to believe, that those facilities, especially, have been completely obliterated.”
He then stated, “We have degraded their program by one to two years, at least. We’re thinking probably closer to two years.”
That low-confidence report is going to haunt this administration until we get a formal report, but I tend to believe that there was more damage done than less based on the reports from Israel and Iran on the subject. It is just a sad state that our intelligence agencies have become so biased and entrenched in this D.C. war that we can no longer trust them to tell us the truth.